Pair #10241

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-THAT

Tyrrell Hatton to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 647

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-THAT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 37528

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Unrelated events across different tours and time frames.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -41.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0268 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -46.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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