Pair #10239

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-THAT

Tyrrell Hatton to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?

Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 647

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-THAT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12992

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:24Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between a 2027 LIV appearance and a 2026 Scottish Open finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -14.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0241 est. fees
Days to maturity: 259
Hurdle yield: 4.48%
Excess yield: -18.61% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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