Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-THAT
Tyrrell Hatton to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?
Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 647
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP10-GESO26-THAT
Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12992
YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:24Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: No logical connection between a 2027 LIV appearance and a 2026 Scottish Open finish.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-14.13%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0900
+ ~$0.0241 est. fees
Days to maturity:
259
Hurdle yield:
4.48%
Excess yield:
-18.61%
BELOW HURDLE