Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-THAT
Tyrrell Hatton to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?
Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 647
YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.1800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-THAT
Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21531
YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0200
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:02Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: These events involve different tours/times with no logical dependency between them.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
25.38%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.8400
+ ~$0.0117 est. fees
Days to maturity:
259
Hurdle yield:
4.48%
Excess yield:
+20.90%
PROFITABLE