Pair #10231

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5823

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-THAT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5424

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:02Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical necessity links winning a major to a top-5 finish at a separate, non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -21.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0093 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -26.16% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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