Pair #10230

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5823

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-THAT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12992

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:02Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require any specific finish at the Genesis Scottish Open, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -40.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2500 + ~$0.0152 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -44.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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