Pair #10227

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 827953

YES ask: 0.0220
NO ask: 0.9790
Last: 0.0220

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Rules

If Tyrrell Hatton wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5823

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:02Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it guarantees winning a major in 2026. However, winning some other major would not require winning The Open Championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -77.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0090 + ~$0.0035 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -82.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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