Pair #10226

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5823

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-THAT

Will Tyrrell Hatton lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21531

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9840
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:12:02Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament, and winning a major does not require having led after Round 1 of a specific major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.59% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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