Pair #10225

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-THAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5823

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8980

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top-20 finish at The Open doesn't guarantee a major win, and a major win could occur at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -47.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3300 + ~$0.0173 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -52.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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