Pair #10223

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 369406

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maverick McNealy wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3222

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship necessarily satisfies the 'wins any major' condition; the converse is not guaranteed.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -85.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0140 + ~$0.0018 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -89.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue