Pair #10222

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3222

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 761

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top-20 finish at The Open doesn't guarantee a major win, and a major win could occur at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -35.39% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0127 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -39.83% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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