Pair #10221

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-HHAL

Will Harry Hall win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 436433

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0030

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Harry Hall wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HHAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1421

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Harry Hall wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship necessarily counts as winning a major; the reverse isn't guaranteed since the major win could be elsewhere.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -61.62% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0009 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -65.85% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue