Pair #10220

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HHAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1421

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-HHAL

Will Harry Hall lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 802

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 doesn't guarantee a major win, and a major win could occur elsewhere.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -1.38% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0060 + ~$0.0004 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.82% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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