Pair #10218

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 816121

YES ask: 0.0250
NO ask: 0.9760
Last: 0.0250

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 27298

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so it necessarily satisfies 'wins any major'. However winning a major doesn't require winning specifically The Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -84.06% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0160 + ~$0.0043 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -88.29% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue