Pair #10217

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 27298

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3544

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.2800
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Making the cut at The Open doesn't imply a major win, and a major win could happen at a different tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -69.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7100 + ~$0.0152 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -73.86% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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