Pair #10216

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 27298

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 62213

YES ask: 0.0210
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0210

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 doesn't guarantee winning a major, and winning a major elsewhere doesn't require leading Round 1 at The Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -0.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010 + ~$0.0028 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -5.26% BELOW HURDLE

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