Pair #10215

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 27298

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8544

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A major win could occur at a different tournament than The Open, and a top-20 finish at The Open doesn't guarantee any major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -49.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -53.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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