Pair #10214

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 27298

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-LABE

The Open Championship: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3930

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major (possibly Masters/PGA/US Open) doesn't require a top-10 finish at The Open, and a top-10 finish at The Open doesn't require a win at any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -34.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0134 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -38.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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