Pair #10213

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1090537

YES ask: 0.0180
NO ask: 0.9830
Last: 0.0180

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Rules

If Sam Burns wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22028

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:23Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so winning it necessarily means winning a major in 2026.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0130 + ~$0.0032 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -81.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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