Pair #10211

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22028

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7689

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:23Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major could be a different major; top20 finish doesn't imply a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -44.90% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3000 + ~$0.0157 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -49.34% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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