Pair #10210

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SBUR

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22028

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5260

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:23Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major could be a different major than The Open, and top10 at The Open doesn't imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -30.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700 + ~$0.0110 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -34.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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