Pair #10208

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 237512

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-MFIT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17808

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:23Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical necessity in either direction between leading Round 3 and finishing top5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6700 + ~$0.0185 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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