Pair #10201

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-GESO26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 3 in the Genesis Scottish Open?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 237512

YES ask: 0.1900
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20136

YES ask: 0.3700
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:03Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: These are separate tournaments (The Open Championship vs Genesis Scottish Open); no logical connection between finishing top 10 at one and leading Round 3 at the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0221 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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