Pair #1020

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11937

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7621720

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:07Z

Reasoning: The Valspar Championship and the Masters are entirely different tournaments. A top 5 finish at Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9510
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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