Pair #102

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26SDIG-DEN

What will be Stefon Diggs's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-01T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1214

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Stefon Diggs's next team is Denver before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-DEN

Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?

Series: KXNFLPLAYOFF
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-01-11T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3687

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z

Reasoning: Whether Denver makes the playoffs has no logical bearing on whether Stefon Diggs signs with Denver, and vice versa. These are independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -60.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: 183
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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