Pair #10198

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT10-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick be ranked top 10 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 970

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is ranked in the top 10 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-MFIT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17808

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:11:03Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical necessity between world ranking and a single tournament top-5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -9.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $0.9800 + ~$0.0248 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -13.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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