Pair #1019

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21504

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-JSPI

Valspar Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21438

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:07Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 10 finish — a player can lead R1 and fall outside the top 10. And finishing top 10 does not require leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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