Pair #10189

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-MFIT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47680

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:10:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between winning a major and finishing top 20 at the Genesis Scottish Open, a non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -76.16% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9300 + ~$0.0047 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -80.60% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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