Pair #10185

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-MFIT

The Open Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 18494

YES ask: 0.2300
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:10:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major elsewhere does not require a top-5 finish at The Open Championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -32.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0157 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -36.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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