Pair #10184

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2049004

YES ask: 0.0530
NO ask: 0.9480
Last: 0.0530

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Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:10:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The Open Championship is one of the four majors listed; winning it necessarily means winning a major. However, winning a different major would not imply winning The Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -84.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0080 + ~$0.0074 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -88.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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