Pair #10183

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 94908

YES ask: 0.0290
NO ask: 0.9790
Last: 0.0290

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:10:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major (possibly a different one) has no necessary connection to leading after Round 1 of The Open Championship.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 3.50% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9790 + ~$0.0053 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -0.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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