Pair #10180

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT10-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick be ranked top 10 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 970

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.2200
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is ranked in the top 10 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MFIT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 28432

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:10:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major greatly boosts ranking but does not logically guarantee top-10 OWGR ranking on a specific future date; not a logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.2800 + ~$0.0160 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

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