Pair #10179

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 3 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6522

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11972

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:10:42Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 doesn't require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top 5 finish (could collapse).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2600 + ~$0.0200 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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