Pair #10172

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8764

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 9278

YES ask: 0.8800
NO ask: 0.1300
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:10:20Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: The cut is determined after round 2; the player leading at that point necessarily has a qualifying score and therefore has made the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8400 + ~$0.0101 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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