Pair #10169

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 2 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8764

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 23712

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:10:20Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Leading after round 2 does not guarantee a top-10 finish (could fade), and a top-10 finish does not require having led after round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0202 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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