Antecedent (if this happens)
KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?
Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH
Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 187699
YES ask: 0.0450
NO ask: 0.9580
Last: 0.0450
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:50Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: World ranking status and leading after Round 1 of The Open are independent facts with no logical dependency.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-33.13%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0150
+ ~$0.0050 est. fees
Days to maturity:
18
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-37.36%
BELOW HURDLE