Pair #10164

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 187699

YES ask: 0.0450
NO ask: 0.9580
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:50Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: World ranking status and leading after Round 1 of The Open are independent facts with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -33.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0150 + ~$0.0050 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -37.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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