Pair #10161

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 220746

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 3 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6522

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:50Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major does not require leading The Open Championship after Round 3, since the win could occur at a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 3.77% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9700 + ~$0.0131 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -0.67% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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