Pair #10160

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 220746

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11972

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:50Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A can be satisfied by winning a different major; a top-5 finish at The Open doesn't guarantee any major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -36.54% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0229 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -40.98% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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