Pair #1016

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JSPI

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2647

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21504

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:15:07Z

Reasoning: Leading R1 of the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in all 4 majors. These are entirely independent events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 55
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -16.52% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue