Pair #10155

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 220746

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 23712

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.4900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:50Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A can be satisfied by winning any of four majors, not necessarily The Open, so it doesn't force a top-10 finish there; top-10 doesn't imply a win either.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -51.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3700 + ~$0.0249 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -55.91% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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