Pair #10154

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 220746

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:50Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major strongly correlates with high ranking but OWGR ranking depends on complex points accumulation over two years and other players' results; not a strict logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0100 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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