Pair #10153

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-HMAT

Will Hideki Matsuyama win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 403887

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0090

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Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6197

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:15Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship is one of the four majors, so it necessitates the major-win market; the reverse is not guaranteed since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -81.42% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0120 + ~$0.0019 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -85.65% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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