Pair #10152

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HMAT

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6197

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-HMAT

The Open Championship: Will Hideki Matsuyama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hideki Matsuyama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1690

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hideki Matsuyama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:15Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning any major does not necessarily mean winning The Open specifically, so it doesn't guarantee a top-20 finish there; and a top-20 finish at The Open doesn't guarantee a major win.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -34.18% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2000 + ~$0.0123 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -38.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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