Pair #10151

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2858

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JSPA

Genesis Scottish Open: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8383

YES ask: 0.4100
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:15Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No logical connection between a top-20 finish at a non-major and winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -53.15% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0176 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -57.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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