Pair #10149

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2858

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JSPA

Genesis Scottish Open: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 828

YES ask: 0.4600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:15Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Top 10 finish at a non-major event has no logical bearing on winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -56.58% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0181 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -61.02% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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