Pair #10147

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JSPA

Will J.J. Spaun win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 532196

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JSPA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2858

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If J.J. Spaun wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:09:15Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning The Open Championship is winning one of the four majors, so it necessitates the major-win market; the reverse is not true since he could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -79.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0110 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 3
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -83.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-12T12:36:01Z

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