Pair #10141

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-THOC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 3 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-VHOV

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11948

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:51Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Different tournaments; no logical necessity connects the two events.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0168 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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