Pair #10136

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR3LEAD-THOC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 3 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-VHOV

The Open Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11900

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:51Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: A top-5 finish doesn't require leading after Round 3, and leading after Round 3 doesn't guarantee a top-5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0084 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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