Pair #10127

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5740

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-VHOV

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17895

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:32Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessary implication between winning a major and a top 20 finish at a separate, non-major event.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -29.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1600 + ~$0.0117 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -33.57% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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