Pair #10122

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5740

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR3LEAD-THOC26-VHOV

Will Viktor Hovland lead at the end of Round 3 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR3LEAD
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 594

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland is the leader at the end of Round 3 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:32Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: No necessary link between winning a major (possibly a different one) and leading after Round 3 of the Open.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.03% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200 + ~$0.0041 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -9.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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