Pair #10121

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-VHOV

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5740

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-VHOV

The Open Championship: Will Viktor Hovland finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Viktor Hovland
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11900

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Viktor Hovland finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-12T08:08:32Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Winning a major could happen at a different tournament; top 5 finish at the Open doesn't equal winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -23.29% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0098 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -27.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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